Four Gate Alpha
4D ETF System / Weekly updateDated model signals
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THE WEEKLY PICTURE

4D ETF Dashboard

The current model allocation for the rotating ETF sleeve.

CURRENT SIGNALOctober 16, 2026Trades October 12, 2026

Current Allocation

Sleeve 3

Model target weights · not account holdings

Weights apply to the sleeve being updated. The other sleeves can hold different allocations from earlier signals.

Market-state view

Price regime

ON means a favorable broad equity trend; OFF means an unfavorable trend. The number (0–3) counts supporting momentum, trend-quality and volume signals. QQQ has its own trend test.

Leverage overlay

As of October 16, 2026 · Gate OFF

TierNew-sleeve target
1xSPY 100.0%
1.5xSPY 100.0%
2xSPY 100.0%
2.5xSPY 100.0%
3xSPY 100.0%

The separate leverage gate requires SPY above its 200-session average and 20-session volatility in the lowest 20% of its causal history. Gate-off targets use the baseline allocation. View leverage performance →

Across all three sleeves

Combined model weights at the latest close, including price drift. Before the next rotation; baseline without leverage.

Weekly signal history

54 weeks · ETF

Newest first · full history

Trade dateSleeveStateAllocationCompaniesStatusClose dateClosed gain/loss
2026-10-191ON3SPY 100.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SHY 0.0% · TLT 0.0% · UUP 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · FXF 0.0% · IBIT 0.0% · Cash 0.0%0Scheduled2026-11-09Scheduled—
2026-10-123ON2SPY 73.5% · QQQ 26.5%0Holding2026-11-02Scheduled—
2026-10-052ON3SPY 75.5% · QQQ 24.5%0Holding2026-10-26Scheduled—
2026-09-281ON3SPY 77.0% · QQQ 23.0%0Holding2026-10-19Scheduled—
2026-09-213ON3SPY 78.5% · QQQ 21.5%0Closed2026-10-12+1.93%
2026-09-142ON3SPY 79.0% · QQQ 21.0%0Closed2026-10-05+2.71%
2026-09-081ON1SPY 60.0% · QQQ 15.0% · SHY 12.5% · UUP 12.5%0Closed2026-09-28+0.76%
2026-08-313ON1SHY 8.3% · UUP 8.3% · IBIT 8.3% · QQQ 14.6% · SPY 60.4%0Closed2026-09-21+1.09%
2026-08-242ON1SHY 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · IBIT 6.2% · QQQ 14.6% · SPY 60.4%0Closed2026-09-14-1.21%
2026-08-171ON2QQQ 19.8% · SPY 80.2%0Closed2026-09-08-1.06%
2026-08-103ON2QQQ 19.4% · SPY 80.6%0Closed2026-08-31-0.74%
2026-08-032ON2QQQ 19.7% · SPY 80.3%0Closed2026-08-24+2.25%
2026-07-271ON2QQQ 19.2% · SPY 80.8%0Closed2026-08-17+4.53%
2026-07-203ON3QQQ 20.1% · SPY 79.9%0Closed2026-08-10+3.28%
2026-07-132ON2QQQ 21.1% · SPY 78.9%0Closed2026-08-03-1.21%
2026-07-061ON2QQQ 23.6% · SPY 76.4%0Closed2026-07-27-1.34%
2026-06-293ON1SHY 8.3% · TLT 8.3% · UUP 8.3% · QQQ 21.3% · SPY 53.7%0Closed2026-07-20+0.13%
2026-06-222ON1SHY 8.3% · TLT 8.3% · UUP 8.3% · QQQ 24.1% · SPY 50.9%0Closed2026-07-13-0.63%
2026-06-151ON1SHY 12.5% · UUP 12.5% · QQQ 26.8% · SPY 48.2%0Closed2026-07-06-0.50%
2026-06-083ON1SHY 12.5% · UUP 12.5% · QQQ 30.0% · SPY 45.0%0Closed2026-06-29-0.21%
2026-06-012ON2QQQ 50.2% · SPY 49.8%0Closed2026-06-22+0.02%
2026-05-261ON2QQQ 50.3% · SPY 49.7%0Closed2026-06-15+0.96%
2026-05-183ON2QQQ 50.9% · SPY 49.1%0Closed2026-06-08+0.66%
2026-05-112ON2QQQ 50.7% · SPY 49.3%0Closed2026-06-01+3.15%
2026-05-041ON2QQQ 53.0% · SPY 47.0%0Closed2026-05-26+5.93%
2026-04-273ON1SHY 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · FXF 6.2% · QQQ 38.6% · SPY 36.4%0Closed2026-05-18+3.98%
2026-04-202ON1SHY 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · FXF 6.2% · QQQ 43.5% · SPY 31.5%0Closed2026-05-11+5.24%
2026-04-131ON0SHY 12.5% · UUP 12.5% · GLD 12.5% · FXF 12.5% · QQQ 28.9% · SPY 21.1%0Closed2026-05-04+3.98%
2026-04-063OFF2SHY 16.7% · UUP 16.7% · GLD 16.7% · SPY 50.0%0Closed2026-04-27+4.29%
2026-03-302OFF2SHY 16.7% · UUP 16.7% · GLD 16.7% · SPY 50.0%0Closed2026-04-20+6.02%
2026-03-231OFF3SHY 12.5% · UUP 12.5% · GLD 12.5% · FXF 12.5% · SPY 50.0%0Closed2026-04-13+2.32%
2026-03-163OFF2SHY 16.7% · UUP 16.7% · GLD 16.7% · SPY 50.0%0Closed2026-04-06-2.00%
2026-03-092OFF3SHY 10.0% · TLT 10.0% · UUP 10.0% · GLD 10.0% · FXF 10.0% · SPY 50.0%0Closed2026-03-30-3.26%
2026-03-021ON3SPY 100.0%0Closed2026-03-23-2.82%
2026-02-233ON2QQQ 41.6% · SPY 58.4%0Closed2026-03-16-2.13%
2026-02-172ON3SPY 100.0%0Closed2026-03-09-2.08%
2026-02-091ON3QQQ 42.3% · SPY 57.7%0Closed2026-03-02-1.53%
2026-02-023ON1SHY 8.3% · GLD 8.3% · FXF 8.3% · QQQ 30.1% · SPY 44.9%0Closed2026-02-23+0.13%
2026-01-262ON1SHY 5.0% · TLT 5.0% · UUP 5.0% · GLD 5.0% · FXF 5.0% · QQQ 30.3% · SPY 44.7%0Closed2026-02-17-1.87%
2026-01-201ON1SHY 6.2% · TLT 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · QQQ 26.8% · SPY 48.2%0Closed2026-02-09+0.78%
2026-01-123ON1SHY 6.2% · TLT 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · QQQ 29.3% · SPY 45.7%0Closed2026-02-02-0.13%
2026-01-052ON1SHY 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · FXF 6.2% · QQQ 28.8% · SPY 46.2%0Closed2026-01-26+1.44%
2025-12-291ON1SHY 5.0% · TLT 5.0% · UUP 5.0% · GLD 5.0% · FXF 5.0% · QQQ 28.4% · SPY 46.6%0Closed2026-01-20-0.49%
2025-12-223ON1SHY 5.0% · TLT 5.0% · UUP 5.0% · GLD 5.0% · FXF 5.0% · QQQ 28.6% · SPY 46.4%0Closed2026-01-12+0.69%
2025-12-152ON1SHY 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · FXF 6.2% · QQQ 29.7% · SPY 45.3%0Closed2026-01-05+0.46%
2025-12-081ON1SHY 6.2% · TLT 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · QQQ 30.8% · SPY 44.2%0Closed2025-12-29+0.13%
2025-12-013ON1SHY 6.2% · TLT 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · QQQ 31.6% · SPY 43.4%0Closed2025-12-22+1.06%
2025-11-242ON1SHY 6.2% · TLT 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · QQQ 31.8% · SPY 43.2%0Closed2025-12-15+2.88%
2025-11-171ON1SHY 5.0% · TLT 5.0% · UUP 5.0% · GLD 5.0% · FXF 5.0% · QQQ 32.1% · SPY 42.9%0Closed2025-12-08+2.26%
2025-11-103ON1SHY 6.2% · TLT 6.2% · UUP 6.2% · GLD 6.2% · QQQ 31.9% · SPY 43.1%0Closed2025-12-01+0.04%
2025-11-032ON1SHY 5.0% · TLT 5.0% · UUP 5.0% · GLD 5.0% · FXF 5.0% · QQQ 36.2% · SPY 38.8%0Closed2025-11-24-3.44%
2025-10-271ON1SHY 5.0% · TLT 5.0% · UUP 5.0% · GLD 5.0% · FXF 5.0% · QQQ 40.6% · SPY 34.4%0Closed2025-11-17-1.87%
2025-10-203ON1SHY 5.0% · TLT 5.0% · UUP 5.0% · GLD 5.0% · FXF 5.0% · QQQ 43.4% · SPY 31.6%0Closed2025-11-10+0.93%
2025-10-132ON1SHY 4.2% · TLT 4.2% · UUP 4.2% · GLD 4.2% · FXF 4.2% · IBIT 4.2% · QQQ 45.5% · SPY 29.5%0Closed2025-11-03+3.46%

Model returns follow each dated allocation and its applicable trading-cost assumptions. Open-sleeve close dates are scheduled rotation dates. Holding sleeves have no realized gain/loss; missing or unreconciled execution prices show Pending. Each status follows its latest verified data date. All weeks are retained. Sleeve labels use the same calendar on both dashboards.

Individual total-return-adjusted model entry-to-exit returns, before trading costs. An earlier model exit uses its verified execution price. Overlapping stock weights are combined. The sleeve total also includes ETF/cash allocations and applicable trading costs.

THE RECORD

Evidence & results

Returns and risk, compared over the same dates.

February 6, 1995–October 16, 2026 · hypothetical model results

Growth of $10,000

The full record · logarithmic scale

Move over the chart to inspect the data.

Portfolio returns

Raw total returns

Annualized CAGR

Five-year periods

Same periods · same benchmarks

Calendar five-year blocks. The first and latest blocks are partial. CAGR is annualized; drawdowns and time below peak reset within each block. Sharpe uses the same daily cash proxy.

During market stress

Raw period returns

Each comparison uses the same stated close-to-close dates. These are cumulative returns during the selected market events, not each portfolio’s maximum drawdown.

Time spent in drawdown

Drawdown depth runs from 0% on the left to −25% on the right. The vertical axis shows the share of trading days at or below each drawdown level.

What these results mean

Backtest: February 6, 1995–October 16, 2026. Total-return data, next-open execution and yielding MMF cash. Modeled costs apply to both buys and sells at sleeve rotations and other model trades: 5bp (0.05%) per ETF dollar traded. Leverage results below use actual leveraged ETF history only.

Raw returnsAnnualized CAGRFive-year metricsStress returnsFull historical series

The long-run series starts in 1995 and uses proxy data before the relevant ETFs existed, which includes costs and convexity modelling. Sharpe ratios use the runner’s daily money-market/T-bill proxy. Trading costs and the frozen strategy assumptions are included in the underlying model. “Time below 10% drawdown” is the share of trading days at least 10% below a previous peak. Recent-period returns are total raw returns, not annualized.

FXF and IBIT use actual ETF history only and enter after 200 sessions of warmup; their pre-inception history is not filled with currency or bitcoin proxies. Hypothetical results are not investor account returns.

ETF leverage overlay results

Actual ETF history · February 16, 2010–October 16, 2026
Leverage tierCAGRMaxDDTime ≥10%
below peak		Sharpe
1x13.9%-13.9%6.9%1.06
1.5x15.2%-15.2%7.3%1.06
2x16.4%-16.6%8.9%1.03
2.5x17.9%-18.0%12.5%1.02
3x19.3%-19.3%16.6%1.00

Hypothetical ETF System results with modeled costs and yielding cash. The overlay applies only when its separate leverage gate is ON; gate-off periods use the baseline allocation. The 1x row is the baseline over the same dates. This actual-ETF comparison begins in 2010 and is separate from the 30-year results.

HOW IT WORKS

Four dimensions of the market state.

A shared market framework for both 4D systems.

Read the market

The system looks for agreement across quarterly, half-year and longer-term trend measures. Each of SPY, QQQ, SHY, TLT, UUP, GLD, FXF and IBIT must be strictly above at least two of its 63-, 126- and 200-session simple averages, with 200 sessions of history. The system then looks at slow-momentum, trend-quality and volume-pressure factors to refine the allocations. Whether QQQ is included is the result of its own model. The resulting state determines the new sleeve’s equity budget and target mix.

Stagger the decisions

Three sleeves share the portfolio. One rotates each week and normally holds its cohort for three weeks. Friday’s completed signal applies to the next market session, usually Monday. Holidays can shift the execution date.

Read the state

ON means the broad equity trend is favorable; OFF means it is unfavorable. In the current framework, ON requires SPY to be above at least two of its three trend averages. The number (0–3) counts supporting momentum, trend-quality and volume signals. For example, ON2 means a favorable equity trend with two supporting signals. QQQ has its own trend test.

Follow the model weights

The current allocation applies to the sleeve being updated. The other sleeves retain earlier signals. The optional leverage overlay changes equity exposure only when its separate gate is ON; defensive weights are carried unchanged.

The assets in the mix

SPY

U.S. large-cap stocks

S&P 500 equity exposure.

QQQ

Nasdaq-100 stocks

Equity exposure to the Nasdaq-100.

SHY

Short U.S. Treasuries

Treasury bonds with one to three years to maturity.

TLT

Long U.S. Treasuries

Treasury bonds with more than 20 years to maturity.

UUP

U.S. dollar

Dollar exposure against a basket of major currencies.

GLD

Gold

Exposure to the price of gold.

FXF

Swiss franc

Swiss franc exposure against the U.S. dollar.

IBIT

Bitcoin

Exposure to bitcoin through an ETF.

The defensive reserve is split equally among qualifying SHY, TLT, UUP, GLD, FXF and IBIT positions. Each needs 200 sessions of history and at least two favorable trend votes. If none qualify, the reserve goes to yielding cash. If only one qualifies and triggers the high-volatility safeguard, its allocation goes to cash.

“Defensive” describes the allocation role, not a promise of low risk. Long bonds, currencies, gold and especially bitcoin can suffer substantial losses. FXF and IBIT enter the historical model only after sufficient actual ETF history; no earlier currency or bitcoin proxy is used.

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